For whatever little they’re worth, here are my picks for tonight’s Oscar winners:

  • Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain
  • Best Director: Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain
  • Best Actor: Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain
  • Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line
  • Best Supporting Actor: Paul Giamatti for Cinderella Man
  • Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener for Capote
  • Best Original Screenplay: Match Point – Woody Allen
  • Best Adapted Screenplay: Capote – Dan Futterman
  • Original Score: Memoirs of a Geisha
  • Original Song: “In the Deep” – Crash
  • Best Animated Feature Film: Howl’s Moving Castle

These are the nominees that I think will win in the top categories. I’m not even going to try to predict any of the other categories. These are barely educated guesses as it is.